A powerful analysis from one of Africa’s most prominent Pan-Africanist voices is lending intellectual heft to the dramatic geopolitical realignment sweeping across West Africa’s Sahel region.
In a recent video clip seen by this publication, Professor Patrick Loch Otieno (PLO) Lumumba, the renowned Kenya lawyer, anti-corruption crusader, and director of the Kenya School of Law, articulated a compelling rationale for the region turn towards Russia and China.
Lumumba argues that successful military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have catalysed a profound loss of trust in former colonial powers, creating an opening for global players untainted by Africa’s colonial past.
The perspective directly aligns with and explains the on-the-ground transformations witnessed since 2020, where new military juntas have expelled French forces and welcomed Russian security partners and Chinese investment.
“When a people feel betrayed by one master, they will look for a new friend who does not carry the whip of history,” Patrick Lumumba stated in his characteristically eloquent style. “France came with the burden of exploitation. Russia and China come saying they offer partnership without that baggage. For a nation reclaiming its sovereignty, which voice do you think it will hear?”
PLO commentary is not merely theoretical. It frames a sequence of decisive actions taken by the so-called “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES)—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Security Shift
Following coups from 2020-2023, all three nations terminated defense agreements with France and the United States, leading to the complete withdrawal of Western troops. To fill the void, they turned to Russia. Mali, for instance, contracted Russian military contractors for security support, offering mining concessions in return.
Economic Reorientation
Parallel to the security shift, the Juntas have actively courted Chinese investment to break economic dependencies. The most staggering example is in Niger, where China’s state oil corporation invested over $5 billion to develop oilfields and build a 1,950-km pipeline to the coast—the longest in Africa—after Western investors demurred.
This pivot is starkly reflected in public opinion. A December 2024 survey in Mali reveals that an overwhelming 88% of citizens view Russia’s influence positively, with 79% saying the same of China. In contrast, only 9% viewed former colonial power France positively.
Analysts note that the Sahelian juntas’ strategy is a high-stakes gamble for sovereignty, trading one set of external partnerships for another.
The Russian Bargain
Russia offers unconditional security support without demands for democratic reform, which is appealing to military regimes.
However, evidence suggests this model may be failing. Violence in Mali has surged since the arrival of foreign contractors, with one 2024 ambush inflicting significant losses.
Critics warn that Russia primary interests are resource extraction and geopolitical posturing, not sustainable stability.
The Chinese Deal
China provides massive, no-strings-attached infrastructure financing, aligning with the juntas’ “economic sovereignty” rhetoric.
The trade-off often involves opaque contracts, significant debt, and control over strategic mineral resources critical for the global green energy transition.
The West role has diminished rapidly, hampered by coup-related sanctions and a perceived history of double standards and failed military interventions. Meanwhile, other powers like Turkey are expanding their influence through a mix of armed drones, infrastructure deals, and “solution-based” diplomacy, presenting a third path for the region.
For Professor Lumumba, a fervent admirer of revolutionary leaders like Thomas Sankara, these events are a direct consequence of unfulfilled promises and entrenched neo-colonial structures. His analysis serves as both an explanation and a warning.
He frames the Sahel turn east not as an embrace of authoritarianism, but as a pragmatic, post-colonial search for agency. “The young man in Bamako or Ouagadougou does not dream of Moscow. He dreams of dignity,” Lumumba is quoted as saying. “When the path to that dignity is blocked in one direction, he will forcefully clear another.”
The ultimate outcome of this great game in the Sahel remains uncertain. While the juntas have solidified power and new partnerships, the region faces a worsening jihadist threat, economic fragility, and the risk of exchanging one form of dependency for another.
What is clear, as Lumumba’s voice underscores, is that the era of unquestioned Western dominance in francophone Africa is over, and the continent’s geopolitical landscape is being redrawn by the very forces of sovereignty and historical grievance he has long championed.
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